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Grapes as an indicator of climate change. A number of commentators have rightly pointed out that the successes of English and Welsh wines are less about climate change and more about our willingness to experiment with new varieties that are more suitable to the UK climate. A more useful indicator of change will be what happens in those regions where grapes have been grown for many centuries. The BBC has provided a quick round up of climate change and vineyards in established areas: Spain – Cava producers are struggling to maintain alcohol and acidity levels; Rioja is benefiting, the Tempranillo grape ripening better in the slightly warmer conditions though there are concerns that any further increase in temperature will damage the wine. Some Spanish wineries at the ‘Wineries for Climate Protection’ conference have pledged to fight climate change and have signed the Barcelona Declaration. They aim to reduce their carbon footprint by 20% by 2020, make buildings sustainable, use only renewable energy, reduce water usage, reduce packaging, recycle waste products, conserve biodiversity, green distribution systems and limit the use of chemicals. A research and education programme is promised. Support was promised from more than 1000 Spanish wineries including leading producers such as Torres and Vega Sicilia. Germany - Mosel Valley growers are finding that Riesling is ripening better but the quality is suffering and black rot fungus is increasing. The weather is showing other changes with increasing intensity of rainfall. France – Burgundy has noted that the harvest is getting earlier. Wines with excess sugar and acidity defects are being increasingly reported. Particular concern is being expressed about Pinot Noir and its ability (or lack of ability) to adapt to changing conditions. Decanter also reports that harvesting is expected to start in Champagne around the third week in August and that may be the earliest on record.

Carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise. The International Energy Agency reported that carbon dioxide emissions related to energy production were the highest ever. The previous highest production was in 2008 when approximately 29 gigatonnes was released. The figure for 2010 was over 30 gigatonnes, a rise of around 5%. This will make the target of limiting the global temperature increase to 2°C, agreed at the UN Climate Change talks at Cancún, Mexico in 2010, extremely difficult.

Planning for low-carbon living. A new website and resource pack aimed at helping communities to influence local planning policy and contribute to a low-carbon future, has been produced by the Centre for Sustainable Energy (CSE). Called PlanLoCal, the project includes a website (www.planlocal.org.uk) that contains information and downloads for communities and groups who are investigating energy projects or who are looking to become a low carbon community.

Hay fever rise may be due to increased CO2 levels. Richard Black [Environment correspondent, BBC News] has reported on a study presented to the European Geosciences Union (EGU) annual meeting. Hay fever is rising in Europe. Pollen counts and the length of the pollen season are also increasing. Researchers have found no links with changed land use or rise in temperatures. However they have found a correlation with increased CO2 levels. Not all trees show this increase and the increase is more marked in urban areas.

Nature is to be given equal rights with humans. A number of media sources including the Guardian (11 April 2011) report that Bolivia is about give rights to Nature so that it is protected against developments affecting ecosystems. The increasing variability and destructiveness of the weather has led to government action. In particular, San Andrès University (La Paz, Bolivia) has been warning about the impact of climate change on Bolivia suggesting an acceleration of rising temperatures in the last 30 years that could turn most of Bolivia into an arid land with limited food-producing ability.

Global Temperature The World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office report that 2009 is the 5th warmest year since records began in the mid C19th. The WMO says that global temperatures were 0.44C (0.79F) above the long-term average. Three different temperature sets were used in the analysis, the UK Met Office and the UEA’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US) and NASA.

5-year Plan China is setting a new environmental framework for its next 5-year plan: Slowing emissions growth. Increased use of renewable sources for energy. Increase in forest cover. Reduction of major pollutants including carbon.

Climate change impacts. Two papers published in the scientific journal ‘Nature’ (vol. 470, no. 733, February 2011) add to the literature relating to climate change: (1) Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes by Seung-Ki Min et al They report that the increase in heavy rainfall and similar events in the Northern Hemipshere is due to the increase in greenhouse gases generated by human activity. (2) Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by Pardeep Pall et al They report that that it is very likely that man-made greenhouse gases increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in October and November 2000. The level of impact is uncertain, but in 90% of cases their model suggests that the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in that period increased by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.

Amazon’s function as safety valve threatened. During droughts, the Amazon region's ability to absorb carbon dioxide is reduced. In severe droughts it moves towards being an emitter instead of absorber. This happened in the 2005 drought , which was described as a "one in a century" event. ‘Science’ reports that the 2010 drought was more widespead than the 2005 one - with more trees probably lost. The scientists (from the UK and Brazil) suggest that the days of the Amazon forest curbing the impact of rising greenhouse gas emissions may be coming to an end.

Chernobyl: Impact of radiation The journal 'PLoS One' reports that birds living around the site of the nuclear accident at the Chernobyl power station have 5% smaller brains, an effect that is being directly linked to lingering background radiation. The study looked at 550 birds belonging to 48 different species living in the region. Brain size was significantly smaller in younger birds. Smaller brain sizes are thought to be linked to reduced cognitive ability. The researchers are from Norway, France and the US: Professor Timothy Mousseau (University of South Carolina, US) and Dr Anders Moller (University of Paris-Sud, France).

Russian Wheat Harvest hit by heat and drought The early predictions of a good wheat harvest in Russia are now being drastically downgraded. Lack of rain and temperatures above 30degC have resulted in scorched and dying wheat plants. The previous levels of wheat exports by Russia are unlikely to be maintained.

Climate Change and Migration PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences in the United States of America) explores linkages between climate change, crops yields and Mexico-US cross border migration. The significance on a glocal scale is also highlighted. See http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/07/16/1002632107

Heatwave hits Italian agriculture 'The Independent on Sunday' (25 July 2010) reported major problems in the Italian tomato and dairy industries due to the high temperatures.

As temperatures rise above 30degC most plants become less efficient. The heat damages crucial functioning parts which are protein-based, efficiency falls and if the temperature continues to rise, the plants die. The Italians are expecting a 20% to 25% reduction in the tomato crops this year. Italian dairy farmers are also concerned. Above the mid-20degsC, cattle lose their appetite and drink more water resulting in reduced milk production.

The large blue butterfly in the UK helped by climate change. [reported in the Daily Telegraph, 28 June 2010.] The large blue butterfly became extinct in the UK in 1979. It was reintroduced into Somerset but attempts in other counties failed. Prof Jeremy Thomas, head of ecology at Oxford University, reports that the butterfly is starting to spread across Britain again. He said that it is only now that the climate is warming and suitable spots have been discovered in the Cotswolds that is allowing this to happen. Next month hundreds of caterpillars will be released in two secret locations in an attempt to return the species to the Cotswolds after 50 years.

Statistics... and food statistics! The Soil Association are questioning the origins of two statistics often quoted by politicians and lobbyists for agri-industry: Food production needs to increase 50% by 2030. The SA say, "The scientific paper that the 50% by 2030 claim is based on appears to have been withdrawn by the authors." Food production needs to double by 2050. The SA says, "Research into the doubling figure shows it doesn’t actually exist in the stated source -and that it is based on a number of incorrect assumptions. The scientific basis for the claims are based on a report which on close inspection actually says production would need to increase by around 70%, not 100%."

Developments in Wem Two Public Consultations Future Development in Shropshire - Housing and Employment. Consultation documents are available to view on the Shropshire Council website - at www.shropshire.gov.uk/planning.nsf - at all libraries and council customer service points, and at each the council's area offices. The 12-week consultation, which began on 2 April, is asking for views on a number of important issues, including the amount of development Shropshire Council should be planning for in Shropshire’s market towns; which rural settlements the council should be identifying as areas for sustainable growth; and which sites it should be allocating for development. Wem Town Square Drawings will be displayed at Edinburgh House, Town Hall and the Town Council Offices though the week beginning 10th May 2010. The main exhibition will be at the Co-op on Thursday 13th May. Closing date for questionnaires is 31st May 2010.

Flowering Times The flowering date for British plants is now earlier than at any time in the last 250 years and the last 25 years has shown the earliest dates [as reported in ‘Proceeding B’ (the biological research journal of the Royal Society]. This report is one of a number of studies relating variations in nature to climate change.

Scottish Wine Grapevines are moving northwards through the UK. An experimental site has been set up in Aberdeenshire with 150 vines planted. In Perthshire, 800+ vines are in the process of being planted.

Grow Your Own Demand for allotments outstrips supply and the Government has announced new measures to bring underused and uncared for land back into use.

With the Federation of City Farms and Community Gardens, the aim is to set up a new national community land bank which will act as a broker between land-holders and community groups who want somewhere to grow food. The scheme will offer support and advice to landowners and tenants over the purchase, sale or leasing of land. Proposals are being put forward by councils under the Sustainable Communities Act. These include ensuring food doesn’t go to waste by clarifying that there are no legal restrictions on gardeners selling genuine surplus produce to local markets and shops, making better use of existing powers around allotments and introducing new lease arrangements that will make it easier for people to take control of abandoned land, to set up growing spaces on land that is currently unused or waiting development including stalled building sites or sites waiting for planning permission. The Government has commissioned the Development Trusts Association to prepare standardised mean-while 'leases' so that organisations can access land while it’s waiting to be used but also giving the landlord and tenants legal assurances. This is similar to the meanwhile leases for empty shops which has enabled local residents and organisations to temporarily use vacant properties on the high street. “A Place To Grow”, published by the Local Government Association, gives practical advice on making the most of existing statutory allotment sites including reducing plot sizes and managing waiting lists. It also includes advice on providing new allotments sites and what temporary options are available for people who are waiting for a plot to become available A charity Global Generation is using a temporary lease to create portable allotments in a series of construction skips, located on one of the capital's largest regeneration schemes project has involved young people together with local businesses in the creation of ten bio-diverse food growing sites in the bustling heart of King’s Cross – ‘greening’ the top of office buildings, school grounds and housing estates. During the last year Global Generation was granted leases for two temporary food growing sites, on the 67-acre development site The 'Skip Garden' project is enabling young people from local schools to grow, harvest and sell produce to local restaurants, whilst learning about team working and wider environmental issues. The garden is portable, since it is built in construction skips, so as different parts of the site are brought forward for development the skips will be moved to new locations and continue to produce herbs and vegetables. Further information: Landbanking scheme - the Federation of City Farms and Community Gardens: 0117 923 1800 ‘Meanwhile leases’ - the Development Trusts Association – 0845 458 8336 Places to grow - www.lga.gov.uk/lga/publications/publication-home.do Food strategy: www.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/food/strategy/index.htm Sustainable Communities Act 2007 gives local authorities the opportunity to submit proposals to Government to improve their local communities. Around 300 proposals were submitted to the Local Government Association and a shortlist of nearly 200 proposals was sent to the government for consideration.

Met Office Review: Climate Change. Essentially the review says that climate change is taking place and the chance that it is not caused by the actions of human beings is becoming increasingly remote. The review by Peter Stott is published in 'Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change'. It is noted that the last decade was the warmest on record. Other indicators of climate change are also covered, including the changing rainfall patterns and the decrease in arctic sea ice. Alternative explanations for climate change, such as volcanic or solar activity, are considered and rejected.

Grizzly bears moving north? Various media sources report that grizzly bears are moving north into polar bear territory. There are no records of grizzly bears in Manitoba (Canada) before 1996 says Professor Robert Rockwell (City University of New York) in Canadian Field-Naturalist. The only bears found in this area were polar bears. Between 1996 and 2008 there were nine confirmed sightings of grizzly bears. In the summer of 2009, three more were spotted.

Wolverines in decline. A report in Population Ecology states that numbers are falling across North America. Dr Jedediah Brodie (University of Montana, US) and Professor Eric Post (Pennsylvania State University, US) collected data on snowpack levels in Canada. With the exception of the Yukon, snowpack depth fell between 1968 and 2004. A correlation between declining snowpack and falling numbers of the predator was found. Wolverine numbers are only increasing in the Northwest Territories where although snowpack levels are declining, they remain much higher and less variable than in most other provinces.

Methane gas release is accelerating. A number of sources are reporting the work of a team of scientists led by Igor Semiletov (University of Alaska) who have been studying the release of methane from melting permafrost in the East Siberian Shelf for the last few decade. Semiletov leads the International Siberian Shelf Study (ISSS). They report a significant and worrying increase in the rate of release of the gas. Methane is 20 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Climate and Weather are not the same thing! Climate scientists (and others) have been explaining that an unusual cold snap in one part of the world (accompanied by unseasonally warm weather in others) does not invalidate data on global climate change. A few have also commented that perhaps the UK should take some lessons from the experience since the UK will lose the warming effects of the Gulf Stream if the North Atlantic pump is switched off by the melting ice. We would then have weather conditions similar to Labrador.

2009 will be a vintage year for English & Welsh Wine Quiet confidence about a bumper year for Englsh & Welsh wine has been expressed by a number of individuals and organisations including the Englsh Wine Producers and the United Kingdom Vineyards Association. Jeremy Plester writing in 'Weatherwatch' ('The Guardian', 31.12.2009) said that this was no flash in the pan. The number of degree days (Grapevines need a certain amount of heat during their growing season to be able to produce a reasonable crop - these are known as degree days.) in southern England has risen by 40% since the 1950s.

Holly marches northwards! German researchers report that climate change has resulted in the range of holly trees expanding northwards by over 130km in the last 60 years. For the first time holly is growing wild in Sweden.

Soil Carbon According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) about 90% of agriculture’s global greenhouse gas production could be absorbed by carbon sequestration. A Soil Association report now says that if all UK farmland was converted to organic farming, at least 3.2 million tonnes of carbon would be taken up by the soil each year - the equivalent of taking nearly 1 million cars off the road. The widespread adoption of organic farming practices in the UK would offset 23% of UK agricultural emissions through soil carbon sequestration alone, more than doubling the UK Government’s low target of a 6-11% reduction by 2020. In the UK, grasslands and mixed farming systems also have a vital role to play, and soil carbon may go a long way to offsetting the methane emissions from grass-fed cattle and sheep.

Is climatic change data valid? Two story lines have followed the hacking of the e-mail system of the CRU (University of East Anglia): climatic data is being kept from the public and data is being adjusted or falsified to fit the theories supporting climate change. Kevin Wood and Eric Steig (University of Washington) have compared trends in raw data with that produced by the CRU. Their conclusion is that there is no indication of any problem with the data produced by the CRU. Another study by a molecular biologist in Italy came to the same conclusion using a different analysis. Wood & Steig make the following points: Climate information is increasingly and freely available - the Smithsonian Institution published the first compilation of world-wide meteorological data as long ago as 1927. This historical data is subject to error for a number of reasons: errors of input or transcription, changes in practices, breaks in observations and so on. Clarifying this information is complex but the methods used are recorded extensively and openly.

The ‘noughties’ is the warmest decade since records began. Analyses by the UK Met Office and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) show that 2000-2009 was the warmest decade ever recorded. The WMO said global temperatures were 0.44°C (0.79°F) above the long-term average and that 2009 will almost certainly be the fifth warmest in the 160-year record.

Community coppices. Shaun Burkey, Shropshire Council’s community and conservation officer, is asking local communities and landowners in north Shropshire to dedicate one hectare of their land to create ten woodland coppices.The project, which is funded from the Northern Area Partnership Sustainability Fund, will pay for and plant 1,200 trees for each landowner.The landowner will be encouraged to attend a free 2-day course at Walford and North Shropshire College to learn all about managing the coppice as it grows. If you would like more information about the scheme, get in touch with Shaun Burkey on 01691 624448.

Wem Local: Wem Local Transition group is evolving to focus its energies on two areas, 'Food and Farming' and 'Energy Production'. Anyone who has an interest in either of these subjects and would like to help would be welcome to join either group. Please contact Terry Hobday info@wemlocal.org.uk for Wem Local Transition Town Initiative.

Wem Local: Wem Local Transition group has linked up with the 'Food For Life' project at Thomas Adams School, Wem. This project, through which St. Peters School has already won an award, is now being adopted by Adams. It involves the whole school moving towards greater awareness of the sources of our food. Not only will it incorporate this into the curriculum but also there will be a move to produce school meals from fresh, local and sustainable sources wherever possible. The scheme will build on the excellent work being done by the school's agricultural project managed by Ben Williams. 'Food For Life' hopes to develop strong links within the community through the sharing of ideas, experience and further projects. More information about the 'Food For Life' Partnership can be found at www.foodforlife.org.uk

The Midlands Energy Graduate School (MEGS) announces a new centre of excellence for green graduates. The project has been launched to help the next generation of scientists and engineers to support the shift to a low carbon economy. MEGS will produce postgraduates in areas such as renewable energy, power generation, carbon capture, hydrogen and fuel cells, sustainable building, and energy efficiency. £3m has been provided by the Higher Education Funding Council for England for 150 PhD students over the next five years. Professor Colin Snape, of the University of Nottingham and director of MEGS, said: “The school will provide an unrivalled concentration of energy-related research and development within the UK, and will significantly increase the number of postgraduates in low carbon technologies to match the clear market demand.” MEGS is a collaboration between the Universities of Nottingham, Loughborough and Birmingham. Source: Nottingham University, 08/10/2009

Nuclear Power - an update from 'The Guardian'. Tim Webb (19 October 2009) reports on Europe's new nuclear reactor in Finland. The new reactor should have started operating this year (2009) and have cost £2.72bn. The cost now stands at over £4.7bn and the revised operating date of 2012 looks increasingly doubtful.

Elinor Ostrom is the joint winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics. The award is unusual, not because it is the first time that it has been awarded to a woman but because it is to an economist who has rejected the idea that there are only two choices for the management of resources: private or public. Instead her work has shown the effiency that common management can bring to the use of resources, that co-operation can be more effective than self interest.

Carbon Dioxide levels: Research on carbon dioxide levels over the last 20 million years by a team led by Aradhna Tripati (UCLA) has been widely reported by the BBC and others in the media. The team measured carbon dioxide levels in ocean sediments and compared these to prevailing climatic conditions. Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the beginning of the Miocene period (c. 20 million years ago) were 400ppm; temperatures were 3°C - 6°C warmer than the present day and sea levels were 25m – 40m higher. [Wem is 28m above sea level.] There was no icecap covering Antarctica. Later periods showed variations between 180ppm and 280ppm associated with ice ages and warmer periods. This work is of particular significance since some groups working towards stabilising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are aiming for 450ppm.

Expect the Unexpected – the consequences of climate change could be even more hazardous! A number of news sources (e.g. ‘The Observer’) report on a conference on Climate Forcing of Geological and Geomorphological Hazards that will be held at UCL in London (15-17 September 2009). Scientists will be reporting that climate change could trigger a number of geological events. Translated from the restrained ‘scientificese’ to ‘red-top’ language – this means additional disasters could accompany climate change. Potential disasters include: Increased volcanic activity as the melting ice reduces pressure on the earth’s crust. Avalanches and mud flows triggered by melting glaciers in mountainous regions. More soil erosion caused by increasingly torrential rainfall. Tsunamis could be triggered by earthquakes caused by melting glaciers carrying large volumes of land into the sea. Temperatures in the Arctic are now higher than any time in the past 2,000 years (reported in the journal ‘Science’). Prof. Maslin (UCL) points out that this increase in temperature is causing the permafrost to start melting with the consequent release of methane. Methane is 25 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and will speed up global warming. The Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre hosts the conference. The centre is a leading academic hazard research centre based at University College London.

The Royal Society published its study on possible geo-engineering solutions to climate change this month (August 2009). The study has concluded that many engineering proposals to reduce the impact of climate change are worth investigating but governments must not view them as alternatives to reducing carbon emissions. The report stresses that these measures, if successful, would have limited effect and only ‘buy time’. Some suggestions, e.g. seeding the sea with iron filings, are regarded as very risky. Constructing artificial trees to ‘scrub’ carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere is considered worthy of investigation though the study also admits that creating new forests would have some impact. The chairman of the study, Professor John Shepherd, was quoted by the BBC as saying “…unless we can succeed in greatly reducing carbon dioxide emissions, we are headed for a very uncomfortable and challenging climate future.”

Sustainability: From 1 July 2009 - 30 September 2009, Shropshire Partnership is consulting on the proposal for a Sustainable Community Strategy for Shropshire. Copies of the document and questionnaires can obtained via 01743-252269 shropshire.partnership@shropshire.gov.uk The Wem roadshow for the strategy proposals is on Thursday 17th September 2009 from 8am to 2pm in the Co-op car park, Wem.

Ryedale Vineyards in Yorkshire: Vine planting in 2007.

Crop indicators of climate change: The Guardian's 'Weatherwatch' by Paul Brown (13 July 2009) discusses the northern limit of vineyards as an indicator of climate change. The existence of vineyards in Roman Britain and in medieval England has been used by climate change sceptics as evidence that normal variations in climate can explain the present global warming. The report points out that the view in the 1990s was that the UK would become a wine-producing state in about 2050 but that there are already many successful commercial wine producers - we are 40 years ahead of schedule. Brown cites 174 commercial vineyards whereas the Domesday Book (1085) lists 42 vineyards. [Editor: There are about 400 vineyards in total but most are selling small quantities at the vineyard gate or in the local farmers' markets. Yorkshire and Lincolnshire have seen a number of significant vineyards being established in the last 3 years. Wem also has its own vineyard - Commonwood Vineyard run by Alan & Corinne Goddard.]

	Climate Change Denial: 'Heaven + Earth' , a new book by Ian Plimer has recieved a critical mauling by scientists. George Monbiot ('Guardian', 10 July 2009) lists numerous errors including: Plimmer uses an uncorrected and discredited graph appearing to show that most of the temperature rise of the C20th happened before 1940. The error was caused by the distortion of the timeline on the graph. This graph appeared on Channel 4 in 'The Great Global Warmimg Swindle'. The error was acknowledged and later editions of the film corrected the graph. the claim that only 4% of carbon dixide in the atmosphere is down to humans. Pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide were 280ppm. Current levels are 387ppm. As the man says, do the sums! the claim that volcanoes produce more carbon dioxide than humans - humans produce 130 times more carbon dioxide than volcanoes.
	Wind Turbines: The Energy Saving Trust (EST), after an extensive investigation, has identified the best locations in the UK for the installation of domestic micro-wind turbines. It reports that some homes could produce in excess of £2,800 worth of electricity a year while others would lose money if a small-scale turbine was installed. There is a postcode survey on the EST website to check if it is worthwhile to install a turbine on your house. The general results for Wem are: Wem (urban) has a windspeed of approximately 2.9 metres per second and it would not be advisable to install a turbine. Wem (rural) has a windspeed of approximately 4.6 metres per second and the area is judged ‘marginal’. The EST website (www.energysavingtrust.org.uk) offers other methods of saving energy.
	Carbon Emissions: The G8 has agreed to work towards cutting carbon emissions by 80% by 2050 but have failed to persuade developing countries to cut their emissions by 50% over the same period. The UN is critical of the G8’s efforts and says that the world should be working towards significant cuts by 2020.
	Energy Bonds: The Public Interest Research Centre (PIRC) is backing the idea of Energy Bonds. The idea is that individuals or organisations could buy the bonds at post offices or on-line. There would be an agreed level of return with the bonds backed by the government. An investment body would be set up to organise the funding of projects by the UK's renewable energy companies. This is one of many radical solutions suggested to the government to help deal with climate change.
	The Sustainable Development Commission (A government independent watchdog on sustainable development headed by Sir Jonathan Porritt, website: www.sd-commission.org.uk) has produced a list of ways to save the Earth. These include: Free bikes Locally produced food Grow vegetables on public land Green jobs for the unemployed Councils and private companies join up to provide cheap insulation Carbon captured from burning fossil fuels can be used to grow algae which is then converted into biofuels Royal Bank of Sustainability invests money in climate change projects Government-issued green bonds invest in renewables Low carbon zones of energy efficient housing Cap amount of energy from fossil fuels that companies can sell Charcoal produced from burning wood chips or "bio-char" could be ploughed back into the ground as fertiliser
	Climate Bill passed by US Congress. Aim is to cut carbon emissions and create a cap and trade system. Power companies will also be required to use renewables in power generation. The bill had to be watered down in order to pass through Congress and has still to go through the Senate. UK Climate Change Projections for the West Midlands (published by Defra). By the 2020s, assuming low increase in carbon emissions, the central estimates are: Summer mean temperatures will rise by 1.5ºC Winter mean temperatures will rise by 1.2ºC Summer precipitation will decrease by 5% Winter precipitation will increase by 5% [At these temperatures winter precipitation will likely mean rain in this area.]

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